The NFL Draft occurred over the past few days, and I was watching pretty contently through the first four rounds. Generally speaking, I really liked what I saw.
Things started with a bang on the first night. We used the Browns' fear that another team would trade up and take Trent Richardson to move back a single slot and pick up 3 additional late round picks. Then we grabbed Matt Kalil as we had intended to for months, no matter what Rick Spielman wanted everybody to think. Kalil is the top left tackle prospect in years, and while he's not Jake Long or Joe Thomas, he's immeasurably better than what we had (Charlie Johnson) or even what we have had for ages (Bryant McKinney). He's an athletic blind side protector who is intent on doing things the right way -- whether it's technique on the field or building up power in the weight room to improve his run blocking. Almost as important, it lets us move Charlie Johnson inside to guard, where a lot of people suspect he's a better fit. Along with some off season moves we made, our O line is suddenly adequate if not legitimately strong instead of one of the top liabilities on the team.
Later, we used some of the ammunition we got from that early trade to move back into the first round to pick up Notre Dame safety Harrison Smith. Smith was the consensus number 2 safety in the draft, and last season made it incredibly clear that we had nothing at the position. Smith worked with our coaching staff extensively at the Senior Bowl, and they fell in love with him. Not only his talent and his positioning on the field, but his presence in meetings and his leadership. He should be a day one starter and provide a serious improvement in our secondary.
Our secondary saw further improvement with Josh Robinson, CB out of the University of Central Florida. Robinson set the fastest 40 time at the Combine, running it in 4.29 seconds. On top of that, he put up 17 reps of 225 lbs on the bench press, more than many larger, supposedly stronger backs. He should provide a powerful jam at the line of scrimmage, and he has the speed to recover if he gets burned and make plays on the ball from the other side of the field, and he's a willing tackler. He's an early entry from a mediocre program, so he may not be ready to jump in and start immediately is up to question, but he could develop into something special.
The fourth round saw a number of interesting picks. First being Arkansas wide receiver Jarius Wright. I watched a lot of Hogs games last fall with one of my roommates who comes from the state. Wright is small and best fit to line up in the slot, where we already have Percy Harvin, so a lot of fans may not like the pick. I've seen him play, though, and he's nothing like Harvin. He's possibly faster and more explosive, even if he doesn't have the strength or dynamic ability in the open field. Most important, though, he's a great route runner, which can't really be said about, really, anybody else on the roster. Combined with his speed, this makes him a great deep threat down the middle. I'm honestly excited about the potential to line Wright and Harvin both up on the slot or, better yet, Wright in the slot and Harvin in the backfield and play games with opposing defenses.
Later in the 4th, we picked up a second Arkansas receiver, Greg Childs. Childs is 6'3" and possesses ridiculous speed (clocked at 4.38 at his pro day). He produced extremely well while healthy, but he tore his patella tendon in 2010 and tried to come back too soon, hurting his 2011 performance. Because of this, I haven't seen as much of Childs, but he's a prototypical number 1 receiver in terms of size and ability. Friends who have watched him insist that he's a first or second round talent if not for the injury limiting his exposure last season, and scouts seem to agree. He was a steal who could pay dividends for years to come if he adapts well to the pros.
Between those picks, we made an incredibly un-glamorous but essential decision with USC FB/TE Rhett Ellison. With Jimmy Kleinsasser having retired, we were seriously lacking in supplementary blockers. Current top TEs Kyle Rudolph and John Carlson are great receivers but are only adequate at best in the blocking game. Ellison didn't have a lot of buzz in the media, but Spielman insists that there were other teams planning on grabbing him in the fourth round. Ellison is a hulking guy who was responsible for making holes nearly every time he was on the field last year, and he did it well, considering the high power of USCs offense. I'm sure the Vikings saw plenty of tape on him when they were doing their homework on Kalil, and this is a pick that should pay dividends with AP returning from knee injury and Toby Gerhart being a less dynamic runner in general.
In the top of the fifth, we made possibly our most questionable choice, drafting another DB from Notre Dame. I really haven't been able to find out much about Robert Blanton, other than the fact that nobody seems to see him as a CB in the NFL, meaning he may move over to Safety next to his past and present teammate. Considering the decisions made up to this point, though, I'm going to express faith in the pick. Time will tell, and everything is a crap shoot at this point in the draft, anyway.
We finally started the hunt for a successor to Ryan Longwell in the sixth, where we grabbed Georgia kicker Blair Walsh. Longwell had his worst season in ages last year, missing six kicks, and it's fully possible that he'll continue to regress as he pushes on towards 40. Blair might get knocked for inaccuracy after going 21/35 last season, but 10 of his 14 misses came from 40 or more yards as Georgia kicked more than any other team in the FBS. Kicks that long are always a crapshoot for college players, and he hit a long of 56 yards, so he's got the leg. NFL conditioning and coaching should help his accuracy. It could be an interesting camp for the old guard in special teams.
I honestly don't know much of anything about either of our seventh round picks (UNC linebacker Audie Cole and Cal DE/DT Trevor Guyton) except that several scouts had fourth round grades on the both of them and both play positions where we can always use depth. Along with the bevy of undrafted rookie free agents we've already reached agreements with, they'll fight for positions throughout training camp and provide perspective on our current crop of players.
In short, we've become a much better team over the past 48+ hours. I'm not holding out that we'll be truly competitive, but climbing back up as 6-10 is certainly possible. We've got potentially strong pieces in place at positions where we had nothing. We won't have nothing to work with coming into the draft next year, meaning we can focus on depth and a much smaller number of holes.
I feel good about being a Vikings fan right now. Much better, certainly, than I was after that dark, dark Packers game in November.
Showing posts with label sports. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sports. Show all posts
Saturday, April 28, 2012
Tuesday, April 3, 2012
Vikings!
I'm going take an extended brain dump about the current state of the Minnesota Vikings. I'll be doing another one later about the Timberwolves. Sorry to those of you who don't give a crap.
The Vikings are coming off a terrible season. Their 3-13 campaign has landed them the third pick in the draft, and we have far too many needs to be competitive in a year's time. Many of my thoughts hold true with what I wrote after their incredibly depressing loss to the Packers last November. The chief exception is that I no longer value Lorenzo Booker higher than Toby Gerhart (a handful of well executed trick plays do not make up for an awful fumbling habit).
We're in a rough place right now, waiting to see how AP can recover from torn A/MCLs and if Ponder can watch enough tape and get enough time in with Musgrave to take a serious step forward after an increasingly worrisome debut. Personally, I'm optimistic on both counts, but, hey, you've got to be optimistic about something.
In terms of legitimate good news, we've actually made some savvy decisions this off season that should give us flexibility moving forward, and the draft is strong in the places we need it to be.
First up, Chris Cook was acquitted. Is it very possible that he beat his girlfriend and quietly paid her to recant? Yes. Does he need to be a perfect citizen to be an ascending cornerback, perhaps our position of greatest need? Nope. Sad, but true. I mean, Ray Lewis killed a man, and the city of Baltimore still loves him. Our secondary is a mess, but at least we have one of the positions set with a viable talent who will hopefully be committed to reaching his potential and staying out of trouble after this scare.
Second, we smartly re-signed Erin Henderson to a one-year "show me" contract and moved Fred Pugac back to linebackers coach. Pugac is, by all accounts, one of the better position coaches in the league. It's unfortunate that his stint as defensive coordinator didn't pan out, but we should be glad to have him back where he belongs. Chad Greenway took a step back last season under Mike Singletary, and Erin Henderson is a young player with very high upside if he can get a good teacher. If, under Pugac's tutelage, he can take the step forward everybody seems to think he can, we should lock him up longer term after the season and really solidify our LB corps moving forward.
Third, we've resisted the urge to make splashy moves that will cost us in the long run. There was some legitimate receiving talent available in free agency, but we refused to play ball with the inflated contracts that the young talent was demanding. 8 million a year for Pierre Garcon? No thanks. Similarly for defensive backs. 10 million a year for Brandon Carr and Cortland Finnegan? More tempting, but still too much. The draft is, by ll accounts, deep at DB -- especially since we play a scheme dominated by cover 2, where elite talent isn't as necessary as patience and good reads.
Instead, we've been trying to find value: players who flashed for a period but then regressed briefly or suffered injuries that deflated their marketability. Lots of one year and minimum contracts. Fill the camp with bodies, motivate people with a legitimate chance to win a starting job, and cut the ones who don't look the part. We've also been looking outside the NFL for players, including a pair of intriguing players from the Canadian and Arena football leagues.
Solomon Elimimian is slightly undersized as a Linebacker, but the kid's got wheels (4.6 40) and was named the CFL's defensive player of the year in his rookie season, and players voted him the hardest hitter in the league last year. That highlight video suggests he doesn't give up on a play, and in Tampa 2, where the MLB is responsible for the deep middle of the field, we need a guy who is a bit more athletic to cover the slot and, especially, the new breed of Tight Ends that are tearing up the game right now. Worst case, he's an effective contributor on special teams. Best case, he finishes rounding out the second level of our defense.
As much as an unknown as Elimimian is, even stranger is Nicholas Taylor. Taylor is a former Florida International point guard whom the Vikings grabbed on a minimum futures contract purely as an athletic prospect. Dude is 5'10" and runs a 4.27 40 and spent time last year playing defensive back in Arena Football. Zero risk, amazing upside if he can put that athleticism to use anywhere on the field (especially at corner or returner).
Neither of these are flashy acquisitions, but both of them show a front office that is serious about looking at all the angles while we start rebuilding. We should have money on the books next season once we've filled some of our holes and know where we need to focus our final effort before being truly competitive again.
What we spend this money on next year will be determined by this year's draft.
I'm assuming that we'll take Matt Kalil, an incredibly highly rated Left Tackle out of USC, with our first round pick. This one pick will do worlds for our offensive line. John Sullivan took an enormous step forward at Center last season (pro football focus listed him as one of the top centers in the league), Phil Loadholt still has all the tools to succeed at right tackle with the proper motivation. With Kalil in place at left tackle, we've suddenly got a competition between Charlie Johnson, Joe Berger, Brandon Fusco, and free agency pickup Geoff Schwartz at the two guard positions. Any pair of those guys would be a step up from the Herrera-Hutchinson combination from the last couple of years -- Hutch is an all-time great, but he's old and only just above average these days.
From there, we need to worry about finding starters at wide receiver and defensive back and insurance at linebacker and defensive tackle. In my dream world, Georgia Tech wide receiver Stephen Hill is still available at the top of the second round. This is made more likely by the Bears trade for Brandon Marshall and the cornucopia of receivers that San Francisco grabbed in free agency. I'm still not certain it will happen. Despite being relatively unknown 6 weeks ago, Hill is 6'4", ran a 4.37 at the combine, is an experienced and talented run blocker, and showed better hands and route knowledge than anybody expected at his pro day. The mock draft gurus have him ranked as the number three or four wide receiver available right now, depending on their opinion of Kendall Wright. The Broncos, Browns, and Texans are all possibly landing spots in the bottom third of round one.
If Hill is off the board, I think we pass on a receiver in the second round. There will be very solid prospects available. Alshon Jeffrey was considered a first round prospect for much of the season, and I'm really high on Mohamed Sanu. Both big guys with good body control. I wouldn't even grab a receiver in the early third round, where we could grab similar guys like Marvin McNutt or Nick Toon. These are all big, reliable targets who serve well in the redzone, but they're largely possession guys who won't bring the vertical dimension we need. We've got Michael Jenkins if you're looking for good hands and deceptive speed.
We need somebody who can consistently take the top off of defenses. Early in the fourth round, we should be able to pick up Miami's Tommy Streeter. The guy is a physical specimen on par with Hill but even more raw. I can deal with raw in this case. Sub 4.4 speed at over 6'4" is worth taking a risk on when we've already got Rudolph, Jenkins, Harvin, and now Carlson around for the underneath stuff. We need to make their lives, and Peterson's and Gerhart's, easier, and a guy like Streeter (or, better yet, Hill) can do that for us better than Sanu or Jeffrey much less McNutt or Toon.
Assuming Hill is gone, I'd use our round two pick on somebody like CB Alfonzo Denard. He's not a top tier player at his position, but he's big and physical off the line and plays the zone well. Depending on how the front office feels about Christian Ballard and Letroy Guion, the other option here would be to take advantage of the draft's depth at DT. Devon Stills, Jerel Worthy, and Michael Bockers could all still be available at this point, and while I'd like to have faith in the guys we've got in place, our defense always thrives on a strong rotation up front.
Beyond these picks, try to find value at safety. It would be great if we could trade to pick up extra picks and put ourselves in positions to grab guys like George Iloka and Markelle Martin where they're worth it. Look for insurance at linebacker, potential at WR, and depth along the line while we're at it. This isn't going to be a one year rebuilding, but the pieces are available for us to be somewhere near .500 next season. Considering the conference we play in, that would be absolutely thrilling.
The Vikings are coming off a terrible season. Their 3-13 campaign has landed them the third pick in the draft, and we have far too many needs to be competitive in a year's time. Many of my thoughts hold true with what I wrote after their incredibly depressing loss to the Packers last November. The chief exception is that I no longer value Lorenzo Booker higher than Toby Gerhart (a handful of well executed trick plays do not make up for an awful fumbling habit).
We're in a rough place right now, waiting to see how AP can recover from torn A/MCLs and if Ponder can watch enough tape and get enough time in with Musgrave to take a serious step forward after an increasingly worrisome debut. Personally, I'm optimistic on both counts, but, hey, you've got to be optimistic about something.
In terms of legitimate good news, we've actually made some savvy decisions this off season that should give us flexibility moving forward, and the draft is strong in the places we need it to be.
First up, Chris Cook was acquitted. Is it very possible that he beat his girlfriend and quietly paid her to recant? Yes. Does he need to be a perfect citizen to be an ascending cornerback, perhaps our position of greatest need? Nope. Sad, but true. I mean, Ray Lewis killed a man, and the city of Baltimore still loves him. Our secondary is a mess, but at least we have one of the positions set with a viable talent who will hopefully be committed to reaching his potential and staying out of trouble after this scare.
Second, we smartly re-signed Erin Henderson to a one-year "show me" contract and moved Fred Pugac back to linebackers coach. Pugac is, by all accounts, one of the better position coaches in the league. It's unfortunate that his stint as defensive coordinator didn't pan out, but we should be glad to have him back where he belongs. Chad Greenway took a step back last season under Mike Singletary, and Erin Henderson is a young player with very high upside if he can get a good teacher. If, under Pugac's tutelage, he can take the step forward everybody seems to think he can, we should lock him up longer term after the season and really solidify our LB corps moving forward.
Third, we've resisted the urge to make splashy moves that will cost us in the long run. There was some legitimate receiving talent available in free agency, but we refused to play ball with the inflated contracts that the young talent was demanding. 8 million a year for Pierre Garcon? No thanks. Similarly for defensive backs. 10 million a year for Brandon Carr and Cortland Finnegan? More tempting, but still too much. The draft is, by ll accounts, deep at DB -- especially since we play a scheme dominated by cover 2, where elite talent isn't as necessary as patience and good reads.
Instead, we've been trying to find value: players who flashed for a period but then regressed briefly or suffered injuries that deflated their marketability. Lots of one year and minimum contracts. Fill the camp with bodies, motivate people with a legitimate chance to win a starting job, and cut the ones who don't look the part. We've also been looking outside the NFL for players, including a pair of intriguing players from the Canadian and Arena football leagues.
Solomon Elimimian is slightly undersized as a Linebacker, but the kid's got wheels (4.6 40) and was named the CFL's defensive player of the year in his rookie season, and players voted him the hardest hitter in the league last year. That highlight video suggests he doesn't give up on a play, and in Tampa 2, where the MLB is responsible for the deep middle of the field, we need a guy who is a bit more athletic to cover the slot and, especially, the new breed of Tight Ends that are tearing up the game right now. Worst case, he's an effective contributor on special teams. Best case, he finishes rounding out the second level of our defense.
As much as an unknown as Elimimian is, even stranger is Nicholas Taylor. Taylor is a former Florida International point guard whom the Vikings grabbed on a minimum futures contract purely as an athletic prospect. Dude is 5'10" and runs a 4.27 40 and spent time last year playing defensive back in Arena Football. Zero risk, amazing upside if he can put that athleticism to use anywhere on the field (especially at corner or returner).
Neither of these are flashy acquisitions, but both of them show a front office that is serious about looking at all the angles while we start rebuilding. We should have money on the books next season once we've filled some of our holes and know where we need to focus our final effort before being truly competitive again.
What we spend this money on next year will be determined by this year's draft.
I'm assuming that we'll take Matt Kalil, an incredibly highly rated Left Tackle out of USC, with our first round pick. This one pick will do worlds for our offensive line. John Sullivan took an enormous step forward at Center last season (pro football focus listed him as one of the top centers in the league), Phil Loadholt still has all the tools to succeed at right tackle with the proper motivation. With Kalil in place at left tackle, we've suddenly got a competition between Charlie Johnson, Joe Berger, Brandon Fusco, and free agency pickup Geoff Schwartz at the two guard positions. Any pair of those guys would be a step up from the Herrera-Hutchinson combination from the last couple of years -- Hutch is an all-time great, but he's old and only just above average these days.
From there, we need to worry about finding starters at wide receiver and defensive back and insurance at linebacker and defensive tackle. In my dream world, Georgia Tech wide receiver Stephen Hill is still available at the top of the second round. This is made more likely by the Bears trade for Brandon Marshall and the cornucopia of receivers that San Francisco grabbed in free agency. I'm still not certain it will happen. Despite being relatively unknown 6 weeks ago, Hill is 6'4", ran a 4.37 at the combine, is an experienced and talented run blocker, and showed better hands and route knowledge than anybody expected at his pro day. The mock draft gurus have him ranked as the number three or four wide receiver available right now, depending on their opinion of Kendall Wright. The Broncos, Browns, and Texans are all possibly landing spots in the bottom third of round one.
If Hill is off the board, I think we pass on a receiver in the second round. There will be very solid prospects available. Alshon Jeffrey was considered a first round prospect for much of the season, and I'm really high on Mohamed Sanu. Both big guys with good body control. I wouldn't even grab a receiver in the early third round, where we could grab similar guys like Marvin McNutt or Nick Toon. These are all big, reliable targets who serve well in the redzone, but they're largely possession guys who won't bring the vertical dimension we need. We've got Michael Jenkins if you're looking for good hands and deceptive speed.
We need somebody who can consistently take the top off of defenses. Early in the fourth round, we should be able to pick up Miami's Tommy Streeter. The guy is a physical specimen on par with Hill but even more raw. I can deal with raw in this case. Sub 4.4 speed at over 6'4" is worth taking a risk on when we've already got Rudolph, Jenkins, Harvin, and now Carlson around for the underneath stuff. We need to make their lives, and Peterson's and Gerhart's, easier, and a guy like Streeter (or, better yet, Hill) can do that for us better than Sanu or Jeffrey much less McNutt or Toon.
Assuming Hill is gone, I'd use our round two pick on somebody like CB Alfonzo Denard. He's not a top tier player at his position, but he's big and physical off the line and plays the zone well. Depending on how the front office feels about Christian Ballard and Letroy Guion, the other option here would be to take advantage of the draft's depth at DT. Devon Stills, Jerel Worthy, and Michael Bockers could all still be available at this point, and while I'd like to have faith in the guys we've got in place, our defense always thrives on a strong rotation up front.
Beyond these picks, try to find value at safety. It would be great if we could trade to pick up extra picks and put ourselves in positions to grab guys like George Iloka and Markelle Martin where they're worth it. Look for insurance at linebacker, potential at WR, and depth along the line while we're at it. This isn't going to be a one year rebuilding, but the pieces are available for us to be somewhere near .500 next season. Considering the conference we play in, that would be absolutely thrilling.
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Fixing the Vikings
I'm still numb after last night's soul crushing 47-7 loss to the Green Bay Packers. I've never watched a game this bad. If not for a fumbled punt by Randall Cobb, this would have been a shutout and, officially, the worst loss in franchise history. Instead, this was just the second worse loss by the numbers, made all the worse by the opponent.
First thing's first, I want to see Aaron Rodgers' birth certificate. I don't care where he was born, just that he was. I'm becoming increasingly convinced that the dude is actually a robot designed to be the perfect quarterback, and that's just not fair. For the sake of everybody else's self esteem, he should not be allowed to suit up and step on that field.
On a more serious note, though, this is simply proof positive that the Vikings have an incredibly amount of rebuilding to do after fielding a Super Bowl caliber team just two years ago. It's time to take a good solid look at just what needs to be done, unit by unit (ignoring the looming fact that we're franchise free agents come February and God knows what will happen with the stadium issues).
Quarterback
I still have hopes for Ponder, but yesterday is going to make people question the things they've been praising him most for. For the last two games, we've been celebrating his poise and his ability to make plays on third down and in the fourth quarter. Yesterday, he struggled all night against constant pressure and couldn't get much of anything going. I'm going to hopefully insist that he wasn't the big problem there, but we're going to need to see some more flashes of life from him in the rest of the schedule. For now, though, we hope to be set at the most important position.
Running Backs
We still have Adrian Peterson, and he's still a force to be reckoned with. He doesn't seem to get battered the way most RBs do, so there's a chance we may still have 4 more years of serious production from him -- enough time to make this team competitive again and take another run or two at things. On the backup side, I'm higher on Lorenzo Booker than Toby Gerhart. Gerhart is a hard, between the tackles runner, but Booker is shifty in space and strikes me as the superior 3rd down option. We're not going to give up on Gerhart after trading back into the second round to grab him two years ago, but his best position may be at Full Back if he can improve his blocking (where he's already better than most of our skill players). Again, we seem to be set here and shouldn't make any major moves unless something falls into our lap.
Tight End and Full Back
I predict Shiancoe and Kleinsasser leaving after the season. They're both still productive players, but Kleinsasser is lagging this season after being one of the best blocking TEs in the game for most of his career, and Shiancoe almost certainly wants to put his athleticism to use on a team that can compete in the couple of legitimate years he has left. We do have hope, however, in Kyle Rudolph, last year's second round pick. The kid has fantastic hands, a great work ethic, and a solid relationship with Ponder. We also have a kid named Allan Reisner on the practice squad who everybody loved coming out of camp and who could be a real option with a full off-season of development. We could stand to grab a solid blocking TE late for depth, but Rudolph and Reisner will hopefully be enough to fill the position from a receiving standpoint. I see us running a lot of detached TEs next year.
On the FB side, Ryan D'Imperio has been next to worthless since we promoted him off the practice squad. He let Matthews run by completely unblocked for his first sack last night and has struggled leading downfield in all but a handful of opportunities. As I said earlier, I'd like to see if Gerhart can make the transition more fully (he plays a fair number of F snaps as it is), but I'm a big fan of two tight sets and would be fine with leaving the position unfilled officially. We managed that way for the first chunk of the season, and we were actually competitive in those games.
Receivers
A well documented area of major need on the offense. Right now we've got Percy Harvin and...that's it. I think that Greg Camarillo could do more for us than he's been allowed to do, but we don't need him fighting with Harvin over the slot. Aromashodu and Jenkins have both been competent, but neither of them are a real answer as number one or even number two receivers. Both can walk once their one-year contracts expire. Stephen Burton has reportedly impressed after a rough training camp that was hindered by unreported injuries, but he's only played a handful of snaps after being activated from the practice squad a couple of weeks ago. It would be fantastic if he develops into a real option for next year.
We could also see a bit of help if we can work yet another miraculous conversion: backup QB Joe Webb. The kid claims he can catch fine and that he did plenty of receiver work at UAB, but word is that his hands are awful. He pulled down a 9-yard toss yesterday, though, and if he can play the position, his athleticism would be a real gift for us. He could still occasionally line up in the Wildcat with the option to pass, and we could get a veteran backup for Ponder who isn't a former star and makes sense in the role. This isn't a RB to FB or Center to Guard conversion, though. It's not likely, and I see us making a big move at this position in the offseason -- either with a second or third round pick or a significant move in free agency.
Offensive Line:
Wow, this is a mess. They proved yesterday that they're incompetent against pressure (Ponder had to deal with unblocked rushers all night long), and they've been inconsistent in the run blocking game all season. We don't have a true left tackle, and I'll bet you money right now that this is where our top draft pick will go. Charlie Johnson hasn't been as bad as people feared following the preseason, but "not awful" isn't going to cut it at such an important position, especially with some very strong prospects in the pipeline.
Phil Loadholt is turning into another Bryant McKinnie, a guy with all of the physical tools to succeed at his position but none of the motivation. Anthony Herrera is never going to come back 100% after all of his injuries, and Steve Hutchinson is no longer a dominant force at Left Guard. He can still play at a better than average level, but he and Herrera are both on the wrong side of 30. It's time to find their successors soon here. On the brighter side, John Sullivan has been acquitting himself fairly well at Center, but he's undersized and will always struggle against the bigger Nose Tackles in the game no matter how good his technique.
We have a couple of young guys in the wings who have shown well in limited opportunities and could still develop into viable starters, notably backup center Brandon Fusco and OT Demarcus Love -- who projects better at guard. If we can find a way to make Loadholt get himself into gear and shuffle the interior of the line a bit, we might be able to make this a passable unit with just one high draft pick and a lucky hit late. That would be a miracle.
Offense Overall
It's a mess, but there's mild hope. If we have the guts to show people the door and make a couple of major investments, this could be viable again as soon as next year. When you have AP and Harvin and players with the potential Ponder and Rudolph have shown, that's always going to be the case. Development is essential, though, and the position conversions that could seal the deal are unlikely. With a bit of luck along the line, we're a year away from competency, two years away from real success.
Defensive Line
Jared Allen leads the league in sacks this season and still has the match-ups left on the schedule to challenge for the single season record. I'd say he's still got a number of productive seasons left. Brian Robison has largely disappeared on the Left End after a very promising start, but showed enough early that I'm still hopeful. Everson Griffen has proven on special teams that he has a motor that doesn't stop and has managed to provide his share of pressure in a reasonable number of snaps at End.
It's the interior where we have a bit more concern. Kevin Williams is showing age, and Remi Ayodele has done nothing but take up space this season. Christian Ballard, a rookie out of Iowa, has shown some good things, especially against the pass, and actually played Nose for most of yesterday. Letroy Guion showed promise against the run in the preseason, but hasn't done a whole lot this year. Both could potentially be options for next season, but we're going to be a long way off from the Williams Wall at its prime. Still, our run game has been stout this season, so I'm not too worried about the line as a whole.
Linebackers
E.J. Henderson is showing plenty of wear from his reconstructed knee and the titanium rod in his leg. There are worse linebackers starting in the NFL, but his time may have come. His brother Erin, on the other hand, is making an alright case for himself. Chad Greenway has dipped some since last season, but he's still a rock solid OLB, leading the team in tackles, and just got a significant contract extension. In an ideal world, he'd be better than consistent and would turn into a real play maker, but this soft Cover 2 defense doesn't give him many opportunities for it.
The rest of these guys are career special teams sorts, so we really need a lift at the position. There was talk for awhile of moving Everson Griffen into a stand-up role at least part time, which could be exciting to see, but would leave us short staffed at DE. It's easier to get deals on linebackers than on DEs in free agency. Just look at the improvement the Lions have had in the position this year. I'm guessing we make mid level move at the position in the offseason and possibly try to find value with a 5th or 6th round pick.
Defensive Backs
We have two legitimate players in our secondary right now. One is 34 and just broke his clavicle. The other is currently undergoing investigation and trial for felony domestic assault. This is why we're so far away from truly contending on defense -- especially in a division where we play six games annually against Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, and Jay Cutler.
Cedric Griffin has shown that he won't fully come back from a pair of knee reconstructions; Asher Allen is never going to be better than a dime guy; Husain Abdullah is spotty and does his best work against the run; and our Strong Safety rotation of Jamarca Sanford and Tyrell Johnson is going nowhere. We have two young players in Marcus Sherels, at CB, and Mistral Raymond, at FS, who have shown they might be able to play. But Sherels will likely never be better than a slot guy in the nickel, and Raymond hasn't been good enough this year for the coaching staff to be comfortable playing him regularly.
Our only hope at this position is that Cook turns out to be innocent of the awful things he's accused of and Cedric Griffin can resurrect his career at Safety, where he was projected to be best suited in the NFL, anyway. No matter the case, though, this is where our second round pick almost certainly needs to go. And maybe a third. And a fourth. We really just need to find as many kids with potential as we can and have a battle royale for the starting jobs in our secondary. Starting quality DBs generally don't hit the free market, and if they do, they go to teams that are championship contenders for a price tag we can't afford.
Defense Overall
Our line, while still strong, isn't what it used to be, and that means we won't be able to get away with the wishy washy secondary we've been fielding for years. Our linebackers are adequate but could use a boost. The secondary is a nightmare, though. Depending on how things pan out, we could be two years away from being merely competent in that department. It will take a minor miracle for us to be competitive again next year. Two to three years away.
Special Teams
Ryan Longwell is slumping after years of being rock solid. I won't blame last night's 52 yarder into the wind on him. It was right on target but simply died in the air. That doesn't change the fact that he's missed more field goals this season already than all of last season. It might be time to test new blood.
People who know me know that I love Chris Kluwe, so I may be a bit biased, but I'd still call him top 5 in the league. I've only seen one real botched punt all season, and the big returns have been the result of spotty coverage, not placement.
Spotty, by the way, is about the only way to describe our coverage. We're capable of making fantastic special teams stops, but the serious return guys in the league -- Hester, Cobb -- give us as much trouble as they do anybody else. Our return game, on the other hand, is strong. We've had 60+ yard kickoff returns from three different guys (Harvin, Booker, and Sherels), including Harvin's TD on the opening kick of the season. Sherels has made some poor decisions on both fair catches and returns in the punt game, but he's also made some big plays there.
Coaching
We've seen a handful of interesting things from Bill Musgrave on the offensive side. End-arounds, double reverses, even a poorly executed flea flicker last night. Especially with Ponder driving instead of McNabb, we're starting to get an idea of what this offense is supposed to look like, and it could be good. It's very West Coast, but seems to emphasize the intermediate slightly over the short. With better blocking and more talent at receiver (and more time for Ponder), it could be all right. The play calling in the first few weeks was iffy, but it's getting better. I'll wait to pass judgement until we see how things go next year.
On the defensive side, we're just too married to Cover 2. We're sitting in an era of amazing quarterback play, and that means constant zone coverage is just going to get carved up. We tried some more Cover 1 man last night, but we don't have the personnel for it in the secondary. Frazier needs to let Fred Pagac unleash things. If our secondary is going to get carved up no matter what we do, I see no reason to not get more creative and aggressive with the blitz. We don't have a whole lot left to play for this season, so let's see how much havoc we can cause if we let the dogs loose. We're already top 5 in sacks because of Allen's efforts. Let's give him some help.
Summary
We're a long way off, but things can turn around quickly in the NFL if you hit at the right spots. I don't have great hope for next year. Our holes in three separate units are just too big. We could still elevate ourselves back to a .500 team, though, instead of the 4-12 we'll be likely to get to this year. If we get incredibly lucky with development of this year's rookies -- who didn't get real training last year -- and some unlikely position changes, we could even be better than .500 next year. We play in the strongest division in football, though, and better than .500 won't be enough. In two years, maybe, we'll be able to win a game against the Packers again.
First thing's first, I want to see Aaron Rodgers' birth certificate. I don't care where he was born, just that he was. I'm becoming increasingly convinced that the dude is actually a robot designed to be the perfect quarterback, and that's just not fair. For the sake of everybody else's self esteem, he should not be allowed to suit up and step on that field.
On a more serious note, though, this is simply proof positive that the Vikings have an incredibly amount of rebuilding to do after fielding a Super Bowl caliber team just two years ago. It's time to take a good solid look at just what needs to be done, unit by unit (ignoring the looming fact that we're franchise free agents come February and God knows what will happen with the stadium issues).
Quarterback
I still have hopes for Ponder, but yesterday is going to make people question the things they've been praising him most for. For the last two games, we've been celebrating his poise and his ability to make plays on third down and in the fourth quarter. Yesterday, he struggled all night against constant pressure and couldn't get much of anything going. I'm going to hopefully insist that he wasn't the big problem there, but we're going to need to see some more flashes of life from him in the rest of the schedule. For now, though, we hope to be set at the most important position.
Running Backs
We still have Adrian Peterson, and he's still a force to be reckoned with. He doesn't seem to get battered the way most RBs do, so there's a chance we may still have 4 more years of serious production from him -- enough time to make this team competitive again and take another run or two at things. On the backup side, I'm higher on Lorenzo Booker than Toby Gerhart. Gerhart is a hard, between the tackles runner, but Booker is shifty in space and strikes me as the superior 3rd down option. We're not going to give up on Gerhart after trading back into the second round to grab him two years ago, but his best position may be at Full Back if he can improve his blocking (where he's already better than most of our skill players). Again, we seem to be set here and shouldn't make any major moves unless something falls into our lap.
Tight End and Full Back
I predict Shiancoe and Kleinsasser leaving after the season. They're both still productive players, but Kleinsasser is lagging this season after being one of the best blocking TEs in the game for most of his career, and Shiancoe almost certainly wants to put his athleticism to use on a team that can compete in the couple of legitimate years he has left. We do have hope, however, in Kyle Rudolph, last year's second round pick. The kid has fantastic hands, a great work ethic, and a solid relationship with Ponder. We also have a kid named Allan Reisner on the practice squad who everybody loved coming out of camp and who could be a real option with a full off-season of development. We could stand to grab a solid blocking TE late for depth, but Rudolph and Reisner will hopefully be enough to fill the position from a receiving standpoint. I see us running a lot of detached TEs next year.
On the FB side, Ryan D'Imperio has been next to worthless since we promoted him off the practice squad. He let Matthews run by completely unblocked for his first sack last night and has struggled leading downfield in all but a handful of opportunities. As I said earlier, I'd like to see if Gerhart can make the transition more fully (he plays a fair number of F snaps as it is), but I'm a big fan of two tight sets and would be fine with leaving the position unfilled officially. We managed that way for the first chunk of the season, and we were actually competitive in those games.
Receivers
A well documented area of major need on the offense. Right now we've got Percy Harvin and...that's it. I think that Greg Camarillo could do more for us than he's been allowed to do, but we don't need him fighting with Harvin over the slot. Aromashodu and Jenkins have both been competent, but neither of them are a real answer as number one or even number two receivers. Both can walk once their one-year contracts expire. Stephen Burton has reportedly impressed after a rough training camp that was hindered by unreported injuries, but he's only played a handful of snaps after being activated from the practice squad a couple of weeks ago. It would be fantastic if he develops into a real option for next year.
We could also see a bit of help if we can work yet another miraculous conversion: backup QB Joe Webb. The kid claims he can catch fine and that he did plenty of receiver work at UAB, but word is that his hands are awful. He pulled down a 9-yard toss yesterday, though, and if he can play the position, his athleticism would be a real gift for us. He could still occasionally line up in the Wildcat with the option to pass, and we could get a veteran backup for Ponder who isn't a former star and makes sense in the role. This isn't a RB to FB or Center to Guard conversion, though. It's not likely, and I see us making a big move at this position in the offseason -- either with a second or third round pick or a significant move in free agency.
Offensive Line:
Wow, this is a mess. They proved yesterday that they're incompetent against pressure (Ponder had to deal with unblocked rushers all night long), and they've been inconsistent in the run blocking game all season. We don't have a true left tackle, and I'll bet you money right now that this is where our top draft pick will go. Charlie Johnson hasn't been as bad as people feared following the preseason, but "not awful" isn't going to cut it at such an important position, especially with some very strong prospects in the pipeline.
Phil Loadholt is turning into another Bryant McKinnie, a guy with all of the physical tools to succeed at his position but none of the motivation. Anthony Herrera is never going to come back 100% after all of his injuries, and Steve Hutchinson is no longer a dominant force at Left Guard. He can still play at a better than average level, but he and Herrera are both on the wrong side of 30. It's time to find their successors soon here. On the brighter side, John Sullivan has been acquitting himself fairly well at Center, but he's undersized and will always struggle against the bigger Nose Tackles in the game no matter how good his technique.
We have a couple of young guys in the wings who have shown well in limited opportunities and could still develop into viable starters, notably backup center Brandon Fusco and OT Demarcus Love -- who projects better at guard. If we can find a way to make Loadholt get himself into gear and shuffle the interior of the line a bit, we might be able to make this a passable unit with just one high draft pick and a lucky hit late. That would be a miracle.
Offense Overall
It's a mess, but there's mild hope. If we have the guts to show people the door and make a couple of major investments, this could be viable again as soon as next year. When you have AP and Harvin and players with the potential Ponder and Rudolph have shown, that's always going to be the case. Development is essential, though, and the position conversions that could seal the deal are unlikely. With a bit of luck along the line, we're a year away from competency, two years away from real success.
Defensive Line
Jared Allen leads the league in sacks this season and still has the match-ups left on the schedule to challenge for the single season record. I'd say he's still got a number of productive seasons left. Brian Robison has largely disappeared on the Left End after a very promising start, but showed enough early that I'm still hopeful. Everson Griffen has proven on special teams that he has a motor that doesn't stop and has managed to provide his share of pressure in a reasonable number of snaps at End.
It's the interior where we have a bit more concern. Kevin Williams is showing age, and Remi Ayodele has done nothing but take up space this season. Christian Ballard, a rookie out of Iowa, has shown some good things, especially against the pass, and actually played Nose for most of yesterday. Letroy Guion showed promise against the run in the preseason, but hasn't done a whole lot this year. Both could potentially be options for next season, but we're going to be a long way off from the Williams Wall at its prime. Still, our run game has been stout this season, so I'm not too worried about the line as a whole.
Linebackers
E.J. Henderson is showing plenty of wear from his reconstructed knee and the titanium rod in his leg. There are worse linebackers starting in the NFL, but his time may have come. His brother Erin, on the other hand, is making an alright case for himself. Chad Greenway has dipped some since last season, but he's still a rock solid OLB, leading the team in tackles, and just got a significant contract extension. In an ideal world, he'd be better than consistent and would turn into a real play maker, but this soft Cover 2 defense doesn't give him many opportunities for it.
The rest of these guys are career special teams sorts, so we really need a lift at the position. There was talk for awhile of moving Everson Griffen into a stand-up role at least part time, which could be exciting to see, but would leave us short staffed at DE. It's easier to get deals on linebackers than on DEs in free agency. Just look at the improvement the Lions have had in the position this year. I'm guessing we make mid level move at the position in the offseason and possibly try to find value with a 5th or 6th round pick.
Defensive Backs
We have two legitimate players in our secondary right now. One is 34 and just broke his clavicle. The other is currently undergoing investigation and trial for felony domestic assault. This is why we're so far away from truly contending on defense -- especially in a division where we play six games annually against Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, and Jay Cutler.
Cedric Griffin has shown that he won't fully come back from a pair of knee reconstructions; Asher Allen is never going to be better than a dime guy; Husain Abdullah is spotty and does his best work against the run; and our Strong Safety rotation of Jamarca Sanford and Tyrell Johnson is going nowhere. We have two young players in Marcus Sherels, at CB, and Mistral Raymond, at FS, who have shown they might be able to play. But Sherels will likely never be better than a slot guy in the nickel, and Raymond hasn't been good enough this year for the coaching staff to be comfortable playing him regularly.
Our only hope at this position is that Cook turns out to be innocent of the awful things he's accused of and Cedric Griffin can resurrect his career at Safety, where he was projected to be best suited in the NFL, anyway. No matter the case, though, this is where our second round pick almost certainly needs to go. And maybe a third. And a fourth. We really just need to find as many kids with potential as we can and have a battle royale for the starting jobs in our secondary. Starting quality DBs generally don't hit the free market, and if they do, they go to teams that are championship contenders for a price tag we can't afford.
Defense Overall
Our line, while still strong, isn't what it used to be, and that means we won't be able to get away with the wishy washy secondary we've been fielding for years. Our linebackers are adequate but could use a boost. The secondary is a nightmare, though. Depending on how things pan out, we could be two years away from being merely competent in that department. It will take a minor miracle for us to be competitive again next year. Two to three years away.
Special Teams
Ryan Longwell is slumping after years of being rock solid. I won't blame last night's 52 yarder into the wind on him. It was right on target but simply died in the air. That doesn't change the fact that he's missed more field goals this season already than all of last season. It might be time to test new blood.
People who know me know that I love Chris Kluwe, so I may be a bit biased, but I'd still call him top 5 in the league. I've only seen one real botched punt all season, and the big returns have been the result of spotty coverage, not placement.
Spotty, by the way, is about the only way to describe our coverage. We're capable of making fantastic special teams stops, but the serious return guys in the league -- Hester, Cobb -- give us as much trouble as they do anybody else. Our return game, on the other hand, is strong. We've had 60+ yard kickoff returns from three different guys (Harvin, Booker, and Sherels), including Harvin's TD on the opening kick of the season. Sherels has made some poor decisions on both fair catches and returns in the punt game, but he's also made some big plays there.
Coaching
We've seen a handful of interesting things from Bill Musgrave on the offensive side. End-arounds, double reverses, even a poorly executed flea flicker last night. Especially with Ponder driving instead of McNabb, we're starting to get an idea of what this offense is supposed to look like, and it could be good. It's very West Coast, but seems to emphasize the intermediate slightly over the short. With better blocking and more talent at receiver (and more time for Ponder), it could be all right. The play calling in the first few weeks was iffy, but it's getting better. I'll wait to pass judgement until we see how things go next year.
On the defensive side, we're just too married to Cover 2. We're sitting in an era of amazing quarterback play, and that means constant zone coverage is just going to get carved up. We tried some more Cover 1 man last night, but we don't have the personnel for it in the secondary. Frazier needs to let Fred Pagac unleash things. If our secondary is going to get carved up no matter what we do, I see no reason to not get more creative and aggressive with the blitz. We don't have a whole lot left to play for this season, so let's see how much havoc we can cause if we let the dogs loose. We're already top 5 in sacks because of Allen's efforts. Let's give him some help.
Summary
We're a long way off, but things can turn around quickly in the NFL if you hit at the right spots. I don't have great hope for next year. Our holes in three separate units are just too big. We could still elevate ourselves back to a .500 team, though, instead of the 4-12 we'll be likely to get to this year. If we get incredibly lucky with development of this year's rookies -- who didn't get real training last year -- and some unlikely position changes, we could even be better than .500 next year. We play in the strongest division in football, though, and better than .500 won't be enough. In two years, maybe, we'll be able to win a game against the Packers again.
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