I'm going take an extended brain dump about the current state of the Minnesota Vikings. I'll be doing another one later about the Timberwolves. Sorry to those of you who don't give a crap.
The Vikings are coming off a terrible season. Their 3-13 campaign has landed them the third pick in the draft, and we have far too many needs to be competitive in a year's time. Many of my thoughts hold true with what I wrote after their incredibly depressing loss to the Packers last November. The chief exception is that I no longer value Lorenzo Booker higher than Toby Gerhart (a handful of well executed trick plays do not make up for an awful fumbling habit).
We're in a rough place right now, waiting to see how AP can recover from torn A/MCLs and if Ponder can watch enough tape and get enough time in with Musgrave to take a serious step forward after an increasingly worrisome debut. Personally, I'm optimistic on both counts, but, hey, you've got to be optimistic about something.
In terms of legitimate good news, we've actually made some savvy decisions this off season that should give us flexibility moving forward, and the draft is strong in the places we need it to be.
First up, Chris Cook was acquitted. Is it very possible that he beat his girlfriend and quietly paid her to recant? Yes. Does he need to be a perfect citizen to be an ascending cornerback, perhaps our position of greatest need? Nope. Sad, but true. I mean, Ray Lewis killed a man, and the city of Baltimore still loves him. Our secondary is a mess, but at least we have one of the positions set with a viable talent who will hopefully be committed to reaching his potential and staying out of trouble after this scare.
Second, we smartly re-signed Erin Henderson to a one-year "show me" contract and moved Fred Pugac back to linebackers coach. Pugac is, by all accounts, one of the better position coaches in the league. It's unfortunate that his stint as defensive coordinator didn't pan out, but we should be glad to have him back where he belongs. Chad Greenway took a step back last season under Mike Singletary, and Erin Henderson is a young player with very high upside if he can get a good teacher. If, under Pugac's tutelage, he can take the step forward everybody seems to think he can, we should lock him up longer term after the season and really solidify our LB corps moving forward.
Third, we've resisted the urge to make splashy moves that will cost us in the long run. There was some legitimate receiving talent available in free agency, but we refused to play ball with the inflated contracts that the young talent was demanding. 8 million a year for Pierre Garcon? No thanks. Similarly for defensive backs. 10 million a year for Brandon Carr and Cortland Finnegan? More tempting, but still too much. The draft is, by ll accounts, deep at DB -- especially since we play a scheme dominated by cover 2, where elite talent isn't as necessary as patience and good reads.
Instead, we've been trying to find value: players who flashed for a period but then regressed briefly or suffered injuries that deflated their marketability. Lots of one year and minimum contracts. Fill the camp with bodies, motivate people with a legitimate chance to win a starting job, and cut the ones who don't look the part. We've also been looking outside the NFL for players, including a pair of intriguing players from the Canadian and Arena football leagues.
Solomon Elimimian is slightly undersized as a Linebacker, but the kid's got wheels (4.6 40) and was named the CFL's defensive player of the year in his rookie season, and players voted him the hardest hitter in the league last year. That highlight video suggests he doesn't give up on a play, and in Tampa 2, where the MLB is responsible for the deep middle of the field, we need a guy who is a bit more athletic to cover the slot and, especially, the new breed of Tight Ends that are tearing up the game right now. Worst case, he's an effective contributor on special teams. Best case, he finishes rounding out the second level of our defense.
As much as an unknown as Elimimian is, even stranger is Nicholas Taylor. Taylor is a former Florida International point guard whom the Vikings grabbed on a minimum futures contract purely as an athletic prospect. Dude is 5'10" and runs a 4.27 40 and spent time last year playing defensive back in Arena Football. Zero risk, amazing upside if he can put that athleticism to use anywhere on the field (especially at corner or returner).
Neither of these are flashy acquisitions, but both of them show a front office that is serious about looking at all the angles while we start rebuilding. We should have money on the books next season once we've filled some of our holes and know where we need to focus our final effort before being truly competitive again.
What we spend this money on next year will be determined by this year's draft.
I'm assuming that we'll take Matt Kalil, an incredibly highly rated Left Tackle out of USC, with our first round pick. This one pick will do worlds for our offensive line. John Sullivan took an enormous step forward at Center last season (pro football focus listed him as one of the top centers in the league), Phil Loadholt still has all the tools to succeed at right tackle with the proper motivation. With Kalil in place at left tackle, we've suddenly got a competition between Charlie Johnson, Joe Berger, Brandon Fusco, and free agency pickup Geoff Schwartz at the two guard positions. Any pair of those guys would be a step up from the Herrera-Hutchinson combination from the last couple of years -- Hutch is an all-time great, but he's old and only just above average these days.
From there, we need to worry about finding starters at wide receiver and defensive back and insurance at linebacker and defensive tackle. In my dream world, Georgia Tech wide receiver Stephen Hill is still available at the top of the second round. This is made more likely by the Bears trade for Brandon Marshall and the cornucopia of receivers that San Francisco grabbed in free agency. I'm still not certain it will happen. Despite being relatively unknown 6 weeks ago, Hill is 6'4", ran a 4.37 at the combine, is an experienced and talented run blocker, and showed better hands and route knowledge than anybody expected at his pro day. The mock draft gurus have him ranked as the number three or four wide receiver available right now, depending on their opinion of Kendall Wright. The Broncos, Browns, and Texans are all possibly landing spots in the bottom third of round one.
If Hill is off the board, I think we pass on a receiver in the second round. There will be very solid prospects available. Alshon Jeffrey was considered a first round prospect for much of the season, and I'm really high on Mohamed Sanu. Both big guys with good body control. I wouldn't even grab a receiver in the early third round, where we could grab similar guys like Marvin McNutt or Nick Toon. These are all big, reliable targets who serve well in the redzone, but they're largely possession guys who won't bring the vertical dimension we need. We've got Michael Jenkins if you're looking for good hands and deceptive speed.
We need somebody who can consistently take the top off of defenses. Early in the fourth round, we should be able to pick up Miami's Tommy Streeter. The guy is a physical specimen on par with Hill but even more raw. I can deal with raw in this case. Sub 4.4 speed at over 6'4" is worth taking a risk on when we've already got Rudolph, Jenkins, Harvin, and now Carlson around for the underneath stuff. We need to make their lives, and Peterson's and Gerhart's, easier, and a guy like Streeter (or, better yet, Hill) can do that for us better than Sanu or Jeffrey much less McNutt or Toon.
Assuming Hill is gone, I'd use our round two pick on somebody like CB Alfonzo Denard. He's not a top tier player at his position, but he's big and physical off the line and plays the zone well. Depending on how the front office feels about Christian Ballard and Letroy Guion, the other option here would be to take advantage of the draft's depth at DT. Devon Stills, Jerel Worthy, and Michael Bockers could all still be available at this point, and while I'd like to have faith in the guys we've got in place, our defense always thrives on a strong rotation up front.
Beyond these picks, try to find value at safety. It would be great if we could trade to pick up extra picks and put ourselves in positions to grab guys like George Iloka and Markelle Martin where they're worth it. Look for insurance at linebacker, potential at WR, and depth along the line while we're at it. This isn't going to be a one year rebuilding, but the pieces are available for us to be somewhere near .500 next season. Considering the conference we play in, that would be absolutely thrilling.
Tuesday, April 3, 2012
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For those who care, most of this analysis is synthesized from commentary at 1500espn.com, walterfootball.com, and profootballtalk.nbcsports.com
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